Cryptocurrency and gambling are an intertwined pairing that we’re well used to in the subject of sports betting. The ability to bet on sports using cryptocurrencies for funding is core to GOSUBETTING’s reason to be. But together, they’re now ushering in a revolutionary way to gamble on real-world outcomes, taking us into the world of crypto betting based on predictions of future events contracts, where bettors and traders speculate on specific events – anything from sports championships to Bitcoin price fluctuations.
Early data shows that it’s sports betting that’s leading the way in the growth of these contract bets, with operators like Kalshi and Polymarket reporting rapidly growing interest along with some eye-watering trading volumes. Indeed, during one week in September 2025, Kalshi users reportedly traded in excess of $700 million worth of bets. Polymarket traded over half that again. Prediction markets specialist Dustin Gouker is the man to follow for data on how these markets grow in the future.
Obviously, much of this interest coincides with the start of NFL season, supplemented by the main trading platforms upgrading or increasing integrated platform capability, an increasing awareness of the betting public on these markets, and some enhanced clarity on regulatory status.
It’s easy to see that the growth of regulated sports betting in the US in recent years is fuelling this growth in the predictions markets. 38 states already support regulated betting, with bettors placing legal wagers on all sports from American football to baseball, soccer, and tennis. Dustin notes that football already attracts over two-thirds of prediction contracts volume, and the big predictions operators are not constrained to only operating in fully regulated states. This ability to operate on a broader basis places them in a position to take bets in currently unregulated states like Texas and California, though they are still facing state disapproval and challenges, as we’ll see in a minute.
Kalshi’s lead in volumes is partly down to its own regulated status, a position that’s already placed it in a commanding position in regulated sports betting alongside the likes of Fanduel. Polymarket lags behind, although maybe not for long. In July 2025, Polymarket acquired a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed derivatives exchange, named QCX. This placed them in a position to seek authority from the regulatory body to offer services – an authorisation that was subsequently granted. Fanduel themselves have formed a partnership in August 2025 with leading derivatives marketplace CME, a move that positions them to break into these markets. Other operators are making moves to get involved.
So, this growing trend merges the thrill and risk of betting with the calculated approach of financial speculation, offering unique opportunities for gamblers and investors alike. It’s ripe for analysis from a crypto-users perspective, given that prediction markets first came to prominence during the lead-in to the 2024 US presidential election, where Polymarket was settling bets with stablecoins.
In this guide, we’ll break down how to navigate this innovative betting niche, the advantages of combining futures event contracts with cryptocurrencies, and practical steps to get started.
What are futures event contracts?
At their core, futures event contracts are a type of derivative that lets people place bets on a “yes” or “no” outcome tied to real-world events. Unlike traditional futures (think oil prices or currency exchanges), these contracts rely on event-driven outcomes rather than commodities or financial markets.
Key features of futures event contracts:
- Binary outcomes: Most contracts are simple – either the event happens, or it doesn’t.
- Defined expiration: These contracts settle when an event occurs or a predefined deadline passes.
- All-or-nothing payouts: If the predicted event happens, you’re paid the full contract value. If not, the payout is zero.
For example, imagine a contract predicts, “Arsenal will win the Premier League.” If they win, the contract pays out. If they lose, the bettor forfeits their stake.
Common use cases and examples
Futures event contracts span a wide range of scenarios, including:
- Sports betting: “Will Manchester United win their next match?”
- Crypto predictions: “Will Bitcoin close above $30,000 this quarter?”
- Political outcomes: “Will a specific candidate win an upcoming election?”
These contracts appeal to gamblers who thrive on speculation and thrive in domains driven by uncertain outcomes.
Who are the key players in the predictions markets?
We’ve already mentioned both Kalshi and Polymarket. But others are seeking to gain a foothold.
Kalshi
Kalshi has the deepest market share. It’s increased that share further by partnering with electronic trading platform provider Webull and also with Robinhood – a well-known stock trading platform – whereby Robinhood uses Kalshi’s prediction markets solution. This partnership quickly resulted in an influx of Robinhood’s customers into those markets.
Kalshi drove up user numbers by introducing prop betting in August 2025, followed by an intensive advertising campaign, which put them on more of an equal footing with pure sports betting operators like Draftkings and Fanduel. Kalshi also accepts cryptocurrency deposits, clearly with the aim of capturing the interest of the crypto community.
This concerted effort from Kalshi paid off, with a reported trading volume of $441 million over the first weekend of the 2025 NFL season. Clearly, the targeting of states like Texas, California, and to a lesser extent Georgia and Washington, played no small oart in achieving these strong figures.
Polymarket
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market launched in 2020 on the Polygon network. It lets users bet on real-world events with cryptocurrency, including sports, by buying Yes or No shares priced between $0 and $1. Prices move with supply and demand, reflecting collective probability instead of bookmaker odds.
On Polymarket, users trade against each other instead of the platform. Buying Yes shares at $0.45 that settle at $1.00 when correct yields a profit, while losing bets become worthless. Users can trade shares anytime before market close, using price shifts from new information to secure profits or reduce losses.
Polymarket creates sports markets for outcomes like NBA champions, Premier League winners, and NFL Draft results. Odds adjust in real time to reflect participant sentiment, which researchers note can sometimes predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits.
Polymarket uses the Polygon network to run smart contracts that automate operations, ensure transparency, and remove intermediaries. Transactions use USDC stablecoins, reducing crypto volatility. Despite regulatory challenges, Polymarket seeks to deliver seamless wagering that turns user insight on sports outcomes into potential cryptocurrency earnings.
Crypto.com
One of the biggest crypto exchanges – Crypto.com – announced in early September 2025 that it has formed a partnership with sports gaming operator Underdog to make sports event contracts available to speculators. It’s too early to predict how this service will perform, and we’ll have to see if this joint venture can impact the profitability and market shares of the two main protagonists above.
Fanduel
Fanduel is definitely one to watch in the futures event contracts industry. Although not yet trading in these markets, it’s only a matter of time. On 19th August 2025, they agreed a partnership deal with CME Group, a leading NASDAQ-listed derivatives marketplace. The aim of this partnership will clearly be to launch new Fanduel financial markets products, with Fanduel’s existing base of millions of U.S. users likely to take great interest in the potential for involvement in predictions contracts.
Prizepicks
In September 2025, Prizepicks – a fantasy sports operator – announced it would follow in Fanduel’s footsteps following receipt of an FCM license from the National Futures Association. This license places Prizepicks as the first sports entertainment platform to receive this stamp of legitimacy, allowing it to enter the lucrative prediction contracts market. The firm will need to partner with another operator that holds a Designated Contract Markets license. Interestingly, the current list of DCM license holders includes the two biggest platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. It remains to be seen who Prizepicks will team up with.
Sportsbooks or prediction contracts platforms? What are the differences, and which is best for bettors?
While both traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel and prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to wager on future events, their core operational models, regulatory landscapes, and the nature of the “bet” itself differ significantly. The differences for bettors between traditional sportsbooks and the predictions contracts sites are numerous:
Differences in trading mechanisms
In traditional sportsbooks, odds are set by the bookmaker (the “house”) using proprietary algorithms, statistical models, and expert traders. Their goal is to balance the money wagered on all outcomes to ensure a profit, regardless of the result, by incorporating a commission (known as “vig” or “juice”) into the odds. You bet against the house.
In prediction markets, prices (which represent probabilities) are set by the market itself through the buying and selling of “shares” in an event’s outcome. If more people believe an event will happen, the price of “Yes” shares goes up, and “No” shares go down. You are essentially betting against other participants in the market, not against the platform directly. The platform typically takes a small trading fee, in a similar way to that taken on betting exchanges.
Differences in trading liquidity
Once a bet is placed with a sportsbook, it’s typically a static position. Some books offer “cash-out” features, but this is a separate offer from the sportsbook, not true trading.
In prediction markets, punters can buy or sell shares continuously until the market closes. Thus, participants can actively trade, taking profits early if prices move favorably, or cutting losses if prices move unfavorably. This choice creates dynamic liquidity and allows for the use of hedging strategies to grow profits.
Differences in underlying technology and currency
Traditional sportsbooks use centralized, proprietary software systems. Transactions can be in fiat currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, etc.) or there are many crypto sportsbooks where coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are accepted.
Kalshi’s prediction markets also run on a centralized platform, but built for event contracts and using fiat currency. Plymarket’s platform is decentralized and built on blockchain technology (like Polygon) using smart contracts. Transactions are typically in stablecoins like USDC, offering the transparency and immutability inherent to blockchain.
Differences in market breadth
Sportsbooks are primarily focused on outcomes across a range of sports betting options, and covering just about every sport you can think of. There are some novelty bets like the ability to wager on events like entertainment awards or political elections, but the general focus is on sports betting markets.
Prediction markets often extend beyond traditional sports to include a wider range of verifiable real-world events, such as political elections, economic indicators, scientific discoveries, weather, and entertainment outcomes, alongside sports. This reflects their status as financial speculation tools for information aggregation and price discovery across diverse topics.
What’s best for bettors? Prediction market platforms or sportsbooks
We can see from the differences that either option comes with benefits and drawbacks in comparison. Assuming you have legal access, which one is best will vary depending primarily on your betting needs and, to an extent, your betting experience.
Two key points to take into consideration when deciding which option will work best for you are:
Betting simplicity: Prediction markets are simpler for bettors to use for placing bets than sportsbooks. While sportsbooks can offer a greater variety of sports bets, for example parlays and a wider range of prop bets, some punters may find the concepts more confusing than the simple ‘yes or no’ prediction markets.
Odds and returns: While prediction markets can be applied to multiple types of events, those that are successful will see vast numbers of transactions which in turn introduce liquidity to markets and avoid the potential for reduced odds. In sportsbooks, large bets can more easily impact market prices.
Judging by both these aspects, you might immediately say prediction market platforms are best. But that would be over-simplifying the underlying equations – sportsbooks, specifically the best of the crypto sportsbooks in our case, do offer many valuable advantages.
Are predictions contracts legal?
In spite of their allure for bettors, and their growing status in the sports gambling industry, event contract markets are operating in a grey legal area.
Essentially, they’re regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). But this regulation has seen challenges in the past – specifically during the Biden presidency – where the CFTC itself wanted to classify contracts betting on sports and elections as illegal. This attempt was based on a claim that these forms of betting were, in fact, based on gaming markets and hence were banned under the Commodity Exchange Act. And, if they are a form of gambling, then they’d also fall under the same state-level regulatory oversight as is applied to specific state gambling.
So, as is usual in the US, there’s a lack of clarity that leaves the door open for both parties – operators and regulators – to argue their point. Indeed, some state regulatory bodies have already issued cease and desist notices on the predictions sites, based on the premise that they’re offering unlicensed gambling services. The predictions platforms maintain that state-level laws do not apply, because the contracts market get their approval at a federal level – a level which the American Constitution states is the de facto fallback when local state laws are questionable.
To understand these legal nuances better, let’s see how they apply to the two main operators:
Kalshi’s Legality (Regulated as Event Contracts)
Kalshi operates as a centralized prediction market in the United States and has a distinct legal footing because it is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC oversees futures and options markets, and Kalshi successfully obtained designation as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), allowing it to offer “event contracts” to eligible participants.
Kalshi’s argument, accepted by the CFTC, is that its markets serve a legitimate economic purpose by allowing users to hedge against future events or to discover the aggregated probability of an event. These are framed as financial contracts rather than pure gambling. For example, a market on whether a specific sports team will win a championship could be seen as allowing a business to hedge against promotional costs tied to that outcome.
This CFTC regulation provides Kalshi with a clear legal pathway to operate in the U.S. for the markets it offers. However, this approval comes with strict requirements and limitations on the types of events that can be offered, ensuring they have a verifiable outcome and meet certain “economic utility” criteria, which distinguishes them from arbitrary gambling propositions. While they do offer sports markets, these must fit within the CFTC’s framework for event contracts.
Polymarket’s Legality (Decentralized and Ambiguous)
Polymarket operates on a decentralized blockchain using cryptocurrencies (primarily USDC) and faces a much more ambiguous and challenging legal landscape, particularly in highly regulated jurisdictions like the United States.
As a decentralized platform, Polymarket does not have a central entity that directly controls the markets or holds user funds in the same way a traditional sportsbook or Kalshi does. Smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain automate market creation, share trading, and settlement.
The CFTC has historically taken action against unregulated prediction markets, classifying them as unregistered swaps or derivatives if offered to U.S. persons without proper registration. In January 2022, Polymarket paid a $1.4 million penalty and agreed to cease offering certain markets to U.S. customers without CFTC approval, acknowledging that it had offered unregistered event-based binary options and failed to register as a Swap Execution Facility or Designated Contract Market.
Following that CFTC settlement, Polymarket now generally blocks U.S. IP addresses from accessing many of its markets to avoid further regulatory scrutiny. Its legality in other international jurisdictions varies widely, with some countries being more permissive towards decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, while others may still classify them as unregulated gambling. The lack of a central regulatory body makes its operations more transparent but also makes it difficult to fit within existing legal frameworks designed for centralized entities.
In summary, Kalshi has navigated the U.S. regulatory system by securing a specific classification as an event contract market under the CFTC, legally distinguishing itself from gambling. Polymarket, conversely, has faced direct regulatory action in the U.S. due to its decentralized, crypto-native operations being deemed unregistered derivatives trading, leading it to largely restrict U.S. access for many markets. The core legal debate for both platforms, though resolved differently, centers on whether their offerings constitute permissible financial instruments for forecasting and risk hedging, or illegal gambling.
It’s worth noting that voices of dissent arise from within the industry, too. The NFL is notable in this regard, expressing fears that improper state regulation could lead to underhand initiatives like result manipulation or the planned distortion of prices.
How does cryptocurrency enhance futures event betting?
The addition of cryptocurrency has transformed the futures contract landscape, introducing speed, security, and decentralised possibilities.
Why use Cryptocurrency in betting?
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or USDT (Tether) offer several benefits for futures event betting:
- Privacy and anonymity: Crypto transactions leave minimal traceable information, making them appealing for bettors who value discretion.
- Low fees: Traditional betting platforms often impose high transaction fees, but crypto sportsbooks leverage blockchain to keep costs low.
- Global accessibility: Cryptocurrencies operate beyond borders, enabling bettors to access platforms and contracts unavailable in their local markets.
What are Crypto sportsbooks?
A crypto sportsbook is a betting platform that exclusively or predominantly operates in cryptocurrencies. Platforms like these allow users to deposit, bet, and withdraw using Bitcoin or similar assets.
Key features of crypto sportsbooks include:
- Decentralised Options: Blockchain-based sportsbooks eliminate the need for intermediaries, providing more transparency and quicker payouts.
- Wide Event Selection: Many platforms offer a rich variety of futures event contracts relevant to sports, entertainment, politics, and finance.
Security and regulation
Blockchain technology is inherently secure, offering tamper-proof records of transactions. However, bettors should be cautious when navigating unregulated markets. Regulations surrounding both crypto and futures event contracts can vary widely by region, which means it’s essential to stick to verified, reputable platforms to ensure fair play and fund safety.
Step-by-step guide to betting on futures event contracts
Ready to test your prediction skills? Follow these steps to start betting on futures event contracts using cryptocurrency.
1. Choose the right platform
Your first task is finding a trustworthy crypto sportsbook. Keep these tips in mind:
- Research reviews and reputation to avoid scams.
- Ensure the platform supports the cryptocurrency you want to use.
- Check for user-friendly features like event filters, payout clarity, and fast deposits/withdrawals.
Popular platforms like Kalshi and specialised crypto bookmakers often list diverse futures event contracts.
2. Set up and fund your Crypto wallet
To start betting, you’ll need a cryptocurrency wallet. Here’s how:
- Choose a secure wallet: Options include hardware wallets (e.g., Ledger) or software wallets (e.g., MetaMask). Protect your private keys!
- Buy cryptocurrency: Use exchanges like Binance or Coinbase to purchase Bitcoin or Ethereum with fiat currency.
- Transfer funds to your wallet: Send crypto to your betting platform from your wallet for optimal security.
3. Research and place your bets
Before committing to a contract, do your homework:
- Analyse event trends: Dive into sports stats, market forecasts, or political polls depending on your contract’s focus.
- Understand probabilities: Platforms often display the implied “likelihood” of an event, such as a contract priced at 0.7 (indicating a 70% market-assumed probability).
- Bet strategically: Start small, especially if you’re new. Use structured betting techniques to manage risk.
Example scenario: You place a 0.5 BTC bet on Bitcoin closing above $40,000 by the end of the month, which the platform predicts has a 60% probability. If the contract settles in your favour, you’ll win a pre-defined payout.
Common mistakes to avoid if you’re betting on prediction contracts
Even seasoned players can make errors. Watch out for these pitfalls to improve your chances when betting on futures event contracts.
1. Overbetting or chasing losses
It’s tempting to “win back” what you’ve lost, but this often leads to spiraling losses. Set clear financial limits, and stick to them to preserve capital.
2. Ignoring event analysis
Placing uninformed bets—or relying on intuition alone—is a common mistake. Always research the likely outcomes of events, checking data trends and market sentiment. For instance, analysing a football team’s recent performance or Bitcoin’s price trajectory can provide essential insights.
3. Falling for scams
Unfortunately, the rise of crypto sportsbooks has attracted fraudsters. Avoid platforms with poor reviews, takeovers by questionable operators, or unverified claims of massive payouts. Transparency and reputation should guide your platform choice.
Summary: Is events contract betting worth it?
It’s clear that event contract betting, a burgeoning niche, is experiencing a surge in investor interest, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly eyeing valuations in the billions. These platforms diverge from traditional sportsbooks by allowing users to trade “shares” in event outcomes, where prices reflect market-driven probabilities rather than bookmaker-set odds. This dynamic fosters a continuous trading environment, enabling participants to buy and sell positions as information evolves, akin to financial markets rather than static bets.
However, the long-term viability of sports-centric event contracts remains uncertain, as they face significant legal hurdles. Despite Kalshi’s efforts, including “Breaking News” formatted advertisements, the company continues to draw criticism from U.S. states that argue its sports event contracts are merely a thinly veiled form of traditional online sports betting, attempting to circumvent existing gambling regulations. This legal ambiguity highlights a fundamental tension between innovation in prediction markets and established frameworks designed to govern wagering.
While investors are clearly eager to capitalize on the burgeoning popularity, as evidenced by Kalshi’s reported $5 billion valuation and Polymarket’s potential leap to $9-10 billion from $1 billion, the industry operates against a backdrop of ongoing regulatory challenges. The classification of these event contracts as legitimate financial instruments or as unregulated gambling continues to be a contentious point, underscoring the legal uncertainty that could impact their future growth and market offerings, especially concerning high-volume sports events.
If you do intend to get involved with futures event betting, using Cryptocurrency to fund prediction accounts is not only fun but also a potential avenue for strategic gains. By combining creativity, event analysis, and financial discipline, you can enjoy the excitement of making educated predictions while benefiting from the flexibility of crypto.
Explore the continuously evolving world of crypto sportsbooks to experiment with betting on futures event contracts. Ready to dive in? Visit GOSUBETTING for expert insights and guides, or reach out to us at [email protected] for personalised tips.