One of the longest-running and most tightly-contested rivalries in international football is the one between Italy and Germany. Both nations pride themselves on their football achievements and glory and neither will back down at the chance to add another trophy to their cabinet. Sadly, only one of them will progress to the next stage of the UEFA Nations League.
Italy Team News
Italy finished behind France in their UNL group by goal difference and are unseeded for their 2-legged clash with Germany. Squadra Azzurra appears to be in good form, with their only loss across their last 6 fixtures coming against France. Before that, the team was on a roll of 5 consecutive undefeated matches, 4 of which Italy won. Perhaps somewhat contrary to the reputation Italy has of a sturdy defensive side, 5 of Squadra Azzurra’s last 6 UNL fixtures saw them both score and concede. These 5 games also produced a high amount of goals – over 2.5 each. All of Italy’s 3 home fixtures from their UNL group produced at least 4 goals with scoring being done by both Italy and their opponents.
Germany Team News
Germany is picking up the pace under Julian Nagelsman and Die Mannschaft is now on a 6-game undefeated streak. What this means is that the team has not lost any of its group-stage fixtures, winning 4 of them. However, it is during away fixtures, where Nagelsman’s outfit seems to experience issues, as his team won just 1 of their 3 travels during the group stage. In all those 3 games, Die Mannschaft failed to keep a clean sheet but also managed to score in every match. Overall, Germany continues to be involved in high-scoring matches, as 4 of their previous 6 fixtures produced at least 3 goals. But for the Italy games, Nagelsman will be faced with several injury issues as the likes of Kai Havertz and Florian Wirtz are sidelined and their loss might hamper Germany’s offensive output.
Head-to-Head-Games
Italy haven’t done well in H2H encounters with Germany in recent years as the Squadra’s last triumph over Die Mannschaft dates back to Euro 2012. In the 6 following matches between the two there have been 3 draws and 3 wins for Germany. Five of those 6 games also produced goals from both teams, while just 2 produced over 2.5 goals.
Italy – Germany Betting Prediction
My expectation for this game is that both teams score and this will be my pick. Italy has failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of their last 6 UNL fixtures, with their matches often producing a lot of goals two. On top of this, they will also have to deal with an unfavourable run of H2H against Germany, which coincidentally has also produced a lot of games where both Italy and Germany have scored.
Die Mannschaft will have to push through some unfortunate misses in their squad that might cause their offensive output to suffer. What the team will also have to improve is their performance in away fixtures, as Germany won just 1 of its 3 such matches during the group stage, failing to keep a clean sheet in all of them.
Having in mind the results of both Italy and Germany and their recent H2H history, I believe going for both teams to score is a good option for this match.
Betting Tip: Both Teams To Score: Yes
Bookmaker: Sportsbet.io
Odds: 1.83
Sportsbet.io
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