Alexander Bublik has always been an enigma in men’s tennis: supremely talented, yet often unpredictable and inconsistent. However, his recent five-set comeback win against Alex de Minaur has sent a clear message that he’s bringing his best tennis to Paris this year. Against a player as raw and inexperienced as Henrique Rocha, Bublik has every reason to believe he can win this match comfortably.
Alexander Bublik vs Henrique Rocha Preview
Bublik’s game on clay this year has been a pleasant surprise for his fans. Traditionally uncomfortable on the surface, the Kazakh has turned things around with a string of impressive results, including his first clay-court title in nearly a decade and a remarkable comeback from two sets down against the ever-solid de Minaur. That match demonstrated Bublik’s growing maturity and resilience, qualities that have often been missing from his game in the past.
Heading into the third round, Bublik’s record at this stage of Grand Slams isn’t stellar (1-4), but this matchup is significantly more favourable than most he’s faced at this level. With his big serve, unpredictable shot selection, and newfound confidence, he has the tools to overwhelm Rocha and keep control of the match.
Rocha’s Cinderella run at Roland Garros has been one of the feel-good stories of the tournament. Coming through qualifying and winning back-to-back five-set thrillers against Basilashvili and Mensik showcased his mental toughness and competitive spirit. However, the physical and emotional toll of these marathons cannot be underestimated, especially for a player with limited main-draw experience at this level.
Rocha’s preparation for Paris was less than ideal, plagued by injury and poor form that led to a significant ranking drop earlier this year. Despite his inspiring effort to reach the third round, this match-up against Bublik represents an entirely different challenge—one that could expose his inexperience against higher-calibre opposition.
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Alexander Bublik vs Henrique Rocha – Match Analysis
Bublik’s serve alone should give Rocha plenty of headaches, and his ability to mix up play with drop shots, lobs, and tricky angles makes him a difficult opponent to find rhythm against. Rocha’s recent marathon matches will likely have drained his energy reserves, and against a player of Bublik’s calibre, that fatigue could prove decisive. Expect Bublik to control rallies, shorten points with his serve, and apply scoreboard pressure right from the start.
Betting Tip – Alexander Bublik vs Henrique Rocha
Given Bublik’s improved clay form, his confidence-boosting win over a top-20 player, and Rocha’s physical wear and tear from two long matches, Bublik should win this match comfortably. Bublik to win is the recommended bet, or alternatively, Bublik -7.5 games handicap. You can also try Bublik to win in straight sets.
Betting Tip: Alexander Bublik to Win
Betting Odds: 1.37
Bookmaker: Cloudbet