📍 Venue: All England Club, London
🎾 Surface: Grass
🏆 Tournament: Wimbledon – Grand Slam
One of the most anticipated matchups of the Wimbledon fourth round will see defending champion Carlos Alcaraz take on the dangerous but often underperforming Andrey Rublev. While Rublev has demonstrated his usual consistency by reaching the second week, Alcaraz remains the player to beat on grass. With two Wimbledon titles already under his belt and excellent form this season, the Spaniard comes into this clash as a strong favourite. I believe that Alcaraz will win the match in straight sets (3-0).
Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview
Andrey Rublev has had a solid run at Wimbledon so far, making it to the Round of 16 with gritty performances. Known for his raw power and baseline dominance, Rublev is a threat on any surface, but grass has always been the one where he struggles most. His flat groundstrokes don’t bite as much on this low-bouncing surface, and his movement remains a limitation when forced to chase drop shots or change direction.
Rublev has now reached the second week at all four Grand Slams, which speaks to his consistency. However, the Russian’s record against top-5 players at majors is concerning — he has lost all ten of those matches and won only two sets combined in the process. His one-dimensional approach and mental lapses in high-pressure situations continue to hold him back at this level.
Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t played perfect tennis during the first week — he dropped sets to both Fabio Fognini and Jan-Lennard Struff — but as we’ve seen before, that’s often how the Spaniard operates early in Grand Slams. He lifts his level when it matters most, and even when not at his best, he always finds a way to win. His ability to reset during tough moments is world-class.
Alcaraz enters this match as the two-time defending Wimbledon champion, fresh off a title at Queen’s Club, and as the reigning French Open winner. His grass-court record is elite, with 28 wins in his last 29 matches on this surface. With five titles already this season and more tour-level wins than any other player in 2025, his confidence is sky-high. On grass, his variety, movement, and shot selection are almost unmatched.
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Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz – Match Analysis
Rublev’s flat-hitting style could give him some chances, especially on quick surfaces like grass, but Alcaraz’s superior court coverage, return skills, and mental toughness put him a class above in this matchup. Rublev struggles when plan A fails — and Alcaraz is one of the few players who can force him to adjust constantly.
Add in the pressure of facing a top-5 opponent at a Slam — a scenario Rublev has never overcome — and the edge clearly lies with the Spaniard. Expect Alcaraz to play aggressive on return, mix in drop shots and slices to disrupt Rublev’s rhythm, and dominate in both rallies and transition play.
Betting Tip – Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz’s grass-court pedigree and superior all-around game should shine in this matchup. While Rublev has had a good tournament, his mental block against top-tier opponents is likely to reappear. Back Alcaraz to win in straight sets.
👉Betting Tip: Carlos Alcaraz -2.5 Sets AH
📊Betting Odds: 1.80
🌐Bookmaker: Cloudbet