A thrilling clash awaits in Madrid as the 2023 champion Andrey Rublev takes on crowd-favourite and evergreen showman Gael Monfils in the second round. The match not only presents a story of youth versus experience, but also one of urgency – Rublev needing a turnaround in form to preserve his top-tier status, and Monfils fighting to defy time and extend his remarkable run on clay.
Gael Monfils vs Andrey Rublev Preview
Despite starting the year with high hopes and plenty of time to build momentum, Rublev’s 2025 campaign has been far from convincing. Aside from his hard-fought title in Doha, the Russian has struggled to find rhythm or consistency, leading to a significant drop in the live rankings to No. 17. With his Madrid Masters title from last year on the line, Rublev is under immense pressure to make a deep run here to avoid plummeting further down the standings.
His clay season so far has been shaky, with just two wins in four matches. However, one of those wins was against Monfils himself in Monte Carlo a couple of weeks ago – a three-set battle that Rublev managed to edge out. That memory should serve as a mental boost, even if his form doesn’t quite match his ambitions at the moment.
At 38 years old, Gael Monfils continues to defy expectations and create records. After becoming the oldest ATP title winner earlier this year in Auckland, the Frenchman added another feather to his cap in Madrid by becoming the oldest main-draw match winner in tournament history following his comeback win over Borna Gojo.
Monfils has been playing with renewed freedom and joy, which has translated into some surprising wins. However, his clay-court record in recent years tells a different story—he hasn’t won back-to-back matches on this surface since the 2019 French Open. Moreover, he’s on a seven-match losing streak against top-10 players on clay, a drought stretching back to 2018.
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Place your bet on Betting Tip: Gael Monfils vs Andrey Rublev
Gael Monfils vs Andrey Rublev – Match Analysis
This matchup will hinge heavily on who can impose their rhythm first. Rublev’s aggressive baseline game and powerful forehand are ideally suited to the altitude and quicker clay in Madrid, which helped him lift the trophy here last year. However, his recent inconsistency and tendency to mentally unravel in tight spots leave the door open for Monfils.
Monfils, on the other hand, will look to frustrate Rublev with his unpredictability, defence, and flair. But maintaining physical intensity over three sets against a heavy hitter like Rublev on clay will be a challenge, especially given Monfils’ recent struggles in back-to-back matches on this surface.
Betting Tip – Gael Monfils vs Andrey Rublev
Although Rublev is the favourite, Monfils’ ability to rise to big occasions and the altitude’s effect on serve and rally dynamics could lead to a longer-than-expected match. Their recent clash in Monte Carlo was a three-setter, and Monfils has proven he can still battle through tight sets. Taking all into account, the best betting option here looks to be Over 19.5 Games. Whether it ends in straight sets with one or both being tight, or stretches to a deciding third, this line has great potential.
Betting Tip: Over 21.5 Games
Betting Odds: 1.55
Bookmaker: Cloudbet