Cursed Teams – Should You Bet Against Them?

We all know about curses, something that invokes supernatural power aimed to do harm, usually a form of punishment for something that someone has done. It is a concept that originates from ancient beliefs and the folklore of various cultures. So, this is something that has haunted human imagination for millennia, with people all over the globe crediting symbolic events as the root of tragedies that have affected them. They have evolved amid religious upheaval and were used in specific parts of the world as a device to protect communities. Naturally, over time, they too became literary devices, and Shakespeare famously used them in his masterpiece Macbeth.

In sports, curses have been a part of multiple renowned narratives, especially in the US, where superstitions have become an essential part of sports fandom in the 20th century. The idea of a cursed team haunted by an unseen force doomed to lose is something that has captured many American sports fans, from the infamous Curse of the Billy Goat to the Curse of the Bambino. These superstitious beliefs have become the stuff of legend, part of franchise lore, and have made die-hard supporters cling to rituals like using specific chants or avoiding cursed words. Things that may hopefully break the spell and bring about a trophy.

Cursed teams have gotten defined by long championship droughts, bizarre losses, or inexplicable collapses. Incidents that have fueled superstitions. They have even affected how people bet, even though sports wagering is a game of numbers, not narratives. Success in it hinges on the proper use of data and strategy, not folklore. Nonetheless, superstitions have no doubt impacted this sphere as well, and we go more in-depth into this topic below.

The Role of Fan Superstitions

It should go without saying that the vast majority of sports fans are a superstitious bunch. Rituals are a vital part of fandom. For instance, in the pre-2004 era, Red Sox fans burned candles, chanting at Fenway to reverse the Curse of the Bambino tied to the trade of Babe Ruth. For some, these quirks are the cultural glue that keeps a fanbase together. For others, they amplify a self-fulfilling prophecy. When fans believe in a jinx, every loss feels fated. That leads to players internalizing this pressure, which can heighten anxiety per studies, impacting performance under pressure.

For cursed teams, this dynamic is no doubt toxic, given that fans’ despair and media hype can weigh on players. Some franchises have leaned into their curses like the Red Sox selling Bambino merchandise. But others have faced constant fan scrutiny over perceived jinxes.

For bettors, they create opportunities, as public sentiment swayed by these narratives can also skew betting markets. Casual fans usually avoid bets on cursed teams, giving these perceived jinxes too much stock. Because of such public bias, odds can get inflated, and this creates openings for savvy value bettors to sweep in on contrarian wagers, understanding what has affected judgment in the sphere.

Infamous Cursed Teams

Without question, the Chicago Cubs’ one-hundred-and-eight-year World Series drought (1908–2016) is the gold standard for this topic. It gets marked by near-misses like the 1984 NLCS collapse and the 2003 Steve Bartman debacle. The previously discussed Curse of the Bambino refers to the eighty-six-year championship drought the Boston Red Sox endured from 1918 to 2004 named after Babe Ruth, who was nicknamed – The Bambino, and who the Red Sox traded to the Yankees. Thus, their drought was seen as punishment for giving away one of baseball’s most iconic stars.

However, reasonable individuals will ask themselves if these losing streaks, and others similar to them, are evidence of something else. Statistically, they usually reflect systemic issues. For example, small-market teams not going to the playoffs is often a reflection of their financial struggles and low appeal in acquiring top talent. Not some curse. Poor management has also plagued many teams, fueling these narratives, and even some bettors might see these streaks as predictable, but data usually tells a mixed story.

Going by historical info, against-the-spread records, cursed teams traditionally cover spreads despite losses. That complicates strategies. While streaks suggest weakness, regression to the mean – teams eventually improving, challenges the permanent jinx concept.

Betting Against Cursed Teams

If a team is doomed to lose, betting against it is a no-brainer, right? They seem like easy targets for moneyline or spread bets against them. For example, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Cleveland Browns’ ATS record in the 2000s was abysmal, covering the spread in only 35% of games from 2000 to 2010.

Advanced metrics, like expected points added and win probability models, can help bettors identify when the market overrates/underrates cursed teams. For instance, the Cubs’ strong 2015 season defied their curse narrative. Variance is a hurdle though given that markets adjust for poor performance, so payouts for betting against perennial losers are often low. A balanced tactic, meaning one using ATS trends and ignoring curse hype, can yield profits.

The truth is that betting against cursed teams is fraught with risks, and curses are nothing more than coincidences, a blend of circumstances. The reality is that sports are unpredictable, and even the most hapless teams can have and do have their moments. The Cubs’ 2016 World Series win ended a 108-year drought. The 2004 Red Sox one ended the Curse of the Bambino. Therefore, even the most desperate franchises eventually go on to defy their cursed status eventually. Regression to the mean – no team loses forever. Continuously blindly wagering against them ignores this reality. But remember that market dynamics pose a challenge, and bookmakers adjust odds accounting for a team’s struggles. Emotional bias is too a trap, as many bettors have gotten swayed by curse stories and have overcommitted.

External factors, meaning new coaches, draft picks, or injuries, can disrupt losing streaks. Or they can disrupt people’s perception of them. Keep in mind that all sports gambling requires data-driven discipline and proper bankroll management, not superstition. Those things can mitigate risks and are the most one can do to ensure profitability with this pastime. Plus, as mentioned, advanced metrics and AI-powered models are also doing their part to strip away the mystique of curses.

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