Point Shaving an Insidious Form of Match-Fixing

Today, thankfully, match-fixing is not as prominent as it once was. That is, in large part, on account of the level of statistical analysis involved in high-profile contests and games getting filmed from multiple angles. Hence, it is much easier than before to snuff out nefarious activity. Nonetheless, any sport’s integrity can still get compromised by unethical practices that fly under the radar, undetected. Point shaving, which is the deliberate manipulation of a game’s score, is one of these illegal actions, and it has a long history, particularly with basketball and American football.

What Is Point Shaving?

For those who have never heard of the concept of point shaving, it is a form of match-fixing where parties involved in a competition intentionally meddle with its score. Unlike outright fixing the end outcome, point shaving entails manipulating the spread. That is a line that sportsbooks set to even the playing field between two teams, done by assigning a margin of victory that the favored one must exceed.

Manipulating the result is possible without necessarily changing which side winds up the winner at the final bell/whistle. For this to happen, players can intentionally commit fouls, miss shots, or play below their ability. All that gets done is to influence the final score for it to stay within a specific, desirable range. Because of the subtle nature of this deed, it is super difficult to detect this practice.

Historically, one of the earliest cases of documented point-shaving is from 1951, when players from seven American schools (the CCNY scandal) shaved points in the 1949-50 US college basketball season. They did this to profit by conspiring with gamblers. While there have not been many famed novel point-shaving cases in the past few decades, no one can be sure that parties do not partake in this unethical event manipulation tactic that harms a competition’s integrity in an age where sports betting is more popular than ever.

We touched on this illegal operation in our article about match-fixing scandals, but we will look to elaborate more deeply on it here. So, if that seems interesting, read on to discover more about point-shaving.

Detection & Prevention of Point Shaving

As noted above, proving that someone is shaving points is super hard. In basketball, it is impossible to prove that someone is intentionally badly shooting the ball. Adding just a tad more pressure than necessary will make a shot miss. But given that most top players successfully shoot at around a 50% rate, it is unfeasible to detect which shots have gotten missed intentionally and which were not made due to a lack of skill. Consequently, whistleblowers are essential for detection. These are insiders with a (direct) involvement with these illegal schemes and can provide pivotal evidence, or they can shed light on uncovered incidents that demand an investigation. Once the latter happens, law enforcement agencies begin conducting interviews, organizing surveillance, working with informants, and using wiretaps. They can also comb players’ and coaches’ financial records to spot unaccounted-for or suspicious influxes of cash.

We also mentioned the importance of statistical analysis. In this day and age, modern software can identify unusual player performance patterns via complex algorithms that factor in inconsistent performances, unexpected fluctuations in scoring margins, massive deviations from historical trends, and more. These then get compared with patterns and wins at sportsbooks. Know that bookies look to protect themselves from falling prey to any illegal operations. Therefore, they are more than willing to cooperate with authorities and often submit suspicious activity for investigation to them without request.

Some leagues go so far as to have integrity units working within their organization, ones tasked to investigate any signs of outcome manipulation. These may run background checks on players and customarily work with them to raise awareness about the legal, ethical, and personal ramifications of engaging in this activity. But machine learning algorithms are the best tool for catching match-fixing red flags.

Sportsradar AG is a famed Norwegian company headquartered in Switzerland that works with bookmakers, collecting and analyzing sports data. In March 2024, it revealed that in 2023, its AI software marked a whopping 1,329 suspicious matches, an 8.7% yearly jump. Football events were, without question, the top ones that raised red flags, with basketball ones falling in the second spot, with point-shaving being the most suspected illegal activity connected with the scanned events.

The Most Famous Point-Shaving Scandals

We already touched upon the CCNY incident, where players from schools such as NYU, LIU, Manhattan College, Bradley University, the University of Kentucky, and the University of Toledo got implicated as guilty of point-shaving. They got suspected of conspiring with organized crime figures to fix games, and the case led to the arrests of thirty-two players, who got dealt punishments such as prison sentences, probations, and basketball bans. In total, it got proven that eighty-six games played throughout seventeen states got fixed via point-shaving from 1947 to 1950.

The Tim Donaghy scandal of 2007 is probably the one most basketball fans know and the most renowned regarding the NBA and corruption. In August of 2007, Donaghy, a veteran National Basketball Association referee, admitted his quilt on two felonies regarding concerning games he officiated, where he manipulated the score to service a point-shaving gambling scheme. He willingly affected the over-under outcome of games by being outright biased in how he refed them, fiddling with their scores. He got fifteen months of federal prison time for his crimes, serving eleven of these in a camp in Pensacola, a Florida city in Escambia County.

The most recent high-profile basketball point-shaving-like situation involved Jontay Porter, brother of Denver Nugget’s small forward, Michael Porter Junior. Jontay was a former Missouri Tigers player and a member of the Toronto Raptors, who in April 2024 got a lifetime ban from the NBA and its associated leagues for disclosing confidential information to bettors that made them make distinct prop wagers regarding Porter’s statistics. The NBA-led investigation also discovered that Porter made bets on games he participated in using another person’s account, which is also highly irregular.

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