I’m sure we all like the idea of a sure bet. Who wouldn’t want a bet that can’t lose?
You might be forgiven for thinking it’s impossible. But there are ways to place bets that are sure to get you a positive return.
Ready to find out how it’s done and learn how to place wagers that guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome? This GOSUBetting explainer guide will provide an overview of the principles, techniques and key terms for understanding sure bets.
What is a Sure Bet?
A sure bet, also known as an arbitrage bet, or a riskless bet, is a unique betting scenario where a bettor can guarantee a profit, irrespective of the outcome of a sporting event. This guarantee comes from exploiting price differences across different bookmakers. The price difference is typically realised because of market inefficiencies.
In essence, the odds are structured so that a profit can be generated irrespective of the result, using a risk free trading strategy.
Sure bets allow bettors to achieve a guaranteed profit through the exploitation of a temporary pricing opportunity.
Arbitrage as a Key Concept
The process of identifying and placing sure bets is based on the concept of arbitrage, where a bettor simultaneously buys and sells positions in different markets to capitalize on price discrepancies to enable risk free trading. Successful execution allows bettors to profit from these market variations and profit from these market anomalies.
The term arbs is also often used for arbitrage opportunities.
Arbitrage is the underlying principle that allows sure bets to exist.
The Mechanics of Arbitrage
The process of arbitrage can be explained as a series of steps
- Identifying Odds Differentials: The key to sure betting is finding an odds differential, a difference in the odds offered by different bookmakers or betting exchanges.
- Leveraging Implied Probability: A sure bet relies on combining back and lay bets in such a way that the combined implied probability is below 100%.
- Placing a Back Bet: The selection to back is made using a traditional bookmaker’s platform.
- Placing a Lay Bet: A corresponding “lay” bet is placed on the same selection using a betting exchange or another bookie. A “lay” bet is one where a selection is wagered against.
- Using a Staking Plan: Using a carefully calculated staking plan, the bets are placed to ensure a profit regardless of outcome.
- Realising a Guaranteed Profit: When done correctly, the combined bets will guarantee a profit when the event concludes.
Identifying Market Inefficiencies
Market inefficiency is the main reason that sure bets exist.
An efficient market would have prices that are very close to the true value of an event. However, market imperfections can result in situations where this is not the case, allowing for the identification of pricing discrepancies and market imbalances.
These market mispricings, or pricing errors, are the key to these opportunities, and a deep understanding of these phenomena is essential.
It is also important to be aware of information asymmetry, as this can often be exploited in arbitrage.
Understanding market inefficiencies will help the bettor to identify the situations where a sure bet may be possible.
Identifying Price Discrepancies: The Source of Sure Bets
Price Discrepancies, or pricing variations, are the differences in the prices for the same event across different bookmakers, or different betting markets, that form the opportunity for a sure bet.
These differences are also described as odds divergence and betting line divergence. The better you are at finding price disparity, the greater your chances of finding a sure bet.
Finding these opportunities yourself would be too time-consuming and near impossible given the dozens of sportsbooks you’d need to monitor. That’s why websites that do it for you exist.
Some well-known sure bet advisory sites include:
- Rebel Betting
- SureBet.com
- Betmonitor
Price discrepancies are the core elements to finding a sure bet opportunity, which cannot exist without them.
Hedging Strategies for Sure Bets
Hedging is a critical element in the process of implementing sure bets.
Hedging uses an offsetting bet, with position balancing techniques to reduce the risk of loss. This is usually done by placing bets on multiple different outcomes, and helps to achieve loss minimization and implement effective risk reduction strategies.
A key goal of a sure bet is to use offsetting bets to reduce risk. This is all about implementing risk control techniques.
Hedging is the technique that allows for a guaranteed return.
Bookmaker Comparison and Odds Differences
Finding sure bets requires a thorough approach to bookmaker comparison, also known as odds shopping. Comparing odds analysis is essential to finding opportunities, along with a general price comparison.
By using this betting site assessment, the bettor can identify opportunities and use bookmaker evaluation and pricing evaluation techniques.
An awareness of odds differences and pricing variations will greatly improve a bettor’s chances of finding a sure bet opportunity. Odds deviations and odds anomalies are key to these strategies.
Types of Sure Bets
Cross-market arbitrage techniques use market diversification to find opportunities across different venues. This diversification is sometimes also known as multi-venue trading or regional disparity trading.
You can achieve diversity through location-based arbitrage or more broadly, geographically separated arbitrage.
Additionally, statistical arbitrage uses data analysis and statistical modeling to find opportunities. This analysis also uses price predictions, by using quantitative analysis and mathematical arbitrage techniques, which may use algorithmic trading. This is sometimes called data driven arbitrage.
By understanding the various approaches and different types of sure bets, a bettor will be able to use the optimal approach when needed.
Risk-Free Trading and Guaranteed Returns
The overall goal of the process of implementing sure bets is to engage in risk-free trading with the end result of guaranteed returns. Successfully reaching this goal will produce a secure income with a certain profit, through the use of a no-risk strategy.
This is the ideal betting situation because it provides a zero risk profit and guarantees a positive result.
Summary
In summary, sure bets offer a way to secure profits through exploiting price discrepancies across different betting markets. They rely on understanding and identifying market inefficiencies, comparing odds, using the power of hedging and implementing a range of techniques. While not always readily available, the implementation of sure bets offer the possibility of a profit without risk.
As mentioned earlier, if you want to identify sure bet opportunities, it’s best to use a service dedicated to finding them. These services usually suggest a list of bookmakers that’ll throw up the opportunities. However, for trying to find a sure bet yourself, you can use this list of GOSUBetting recommended crypto sportsbooks below:
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